A few weeks ago I read an article about a rather iconic maker of parkas that I’d never heard of before. The company is called Canada Goose. They’ve made a name for themselves outfitting polar explorers and now produce very durable, warm and fashionable parkas. Naturally, I thought “if these parkas are so great how come I’ve never seen them before???”

Then almost like magic, as if I were playing a real life version of Where’s Waldo, I started to see the parkas everywhere! In the streets, on the bus in the subway. The logo had become distinct and unmistakable and I could spot it from a mile away. Which brought me to my next thought, that if this wasn’t a private company then I would buy the stock because with so many people wearing these parkas, the company must be doing really well!

At that point I stopped to reexamine my thought process and realized something was wrong with my my logic (gasp!). In reality there aren’t any more or less people wearing Canada Goose parkas, the only difference is that I went from not noticing people wearing them to noticing just about anyone wearing one. Therefore, it would appear to me as if there’s been a 100% increase in the number of people wearing the parkas but in reality there is a certain number of people wearing parkas that have been wearing them and continue to wear them regardless of my ability to spot them.

So what’s the moral of the story? Well the whole experience got me thinking about trend spotting and how difficult it is to actually find real trends. The first evidence of a trend is always anecdotal and based on single observation or piece of information. As a result of this, one goes from being completely ignorant to suddenly aware of some phenomenon and begins to look for it systematically. The only problem is that the human eye is so fond of finding patterns that it becomes difficult to discern real trends from what one merely thinks are trends. In other words, am I seeing a lot parkas because people are buying a lot of parkas or am I seeing a lot of parkas because I’m looking for them? Once a pattern seems to manifest itself the temptation is always overestimate the significance of one’s subsequent observations. One begins to subconsciously look for information to support what they already believe to be true and in doing so, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

Just like in the Waldo books, if you look carefully you can find Waldo and the same is true with trends too. Just be careful when trend hunting not to confuse what is happening for what you think is happening. Always be hesitant to draw conclusions based on examining a potential trend from just one perspective. Observation tells us about where a trend might be, it offers an avenue of investigation and a potential opportunity but it should not be taken as a firm conclusion. The reality is that most so called trends end up in fact being just blips on the radar. A good trend hunter must realize this and consistently re-frame their perspective in order to discern the difference between what they think is happening and what is actually happening.